Wow, super week did not disappoint in the entertainment value but wow, it made every fantasy predictor’s life hell. Let’s do a quick rundown of things that happened unexpectedly last week.
- Fnatic went 4-0 this week. Fnatic have been incredibly inconsistent the entire year, which was shown by how they were constantly hovering around 1200 elo in the EU LCS. They had one of the hardest weeks imaginable and they really crushed everybody. Props to them, and congrats to anybody that started them.
- Alliance. The exact opposite of the Fnatic situation. They were primed and ready to 4-0 this super week, but losses to CW and Fnatic severely hampered that (and let’s not talk about the SK surrender). Their 2-2 was an extreme disappointment to their fans, and to their fantasy owners.
- Millennium. 1-3. Played Roccat, Gambit, Fnatic, and SHC. They were the chosen ones. They expected an easy super week and failed.
- Not really surprising, but definitely hurt many Woolite fans was CW getting stomped in all but one of their games.
- NA. As Jatt reminded us 574 times throughout the final day of super week, NA had games that were on average longer than any week ever in NA. Caused an upswing in points for many NA players as they outperformed EU (overall, not single scorers) finally.
- TSM. Even though they went 3-1 this week and tied for first, they didn’t have any of the typical TSM stomps that is common in their wins. They scored way below average and were poor picks.
- Curse. They had the hardest schedule in either NA or EU, and they went 3-1. Wow. Great job to those guys.
- CLG did decent, but wow, did they start well only to fall flat in the last two days. Many fantasy owners became sad as they watched CLG be ineffective in their last two games.
- Dig, same as CLG, but most fantasy analysts actually weren’t predicting much from Dignitas.
Week 7 Analysis
Super Week crushed all of my predictions. I accurately predicted the middle of the road teams and their players’ scores, but top teams that underperformed (Alliance, TSM), snowball teams that get a lot of points on wins (SHC, Mil, EG), and teams that always play close games and rarely get shut out (CW) completely skewed my results. Overall, I was about 4.75% inaccurate and only +/- 12 points precise. The accuracy is good, but good accuracy doesn’t mean that it is acceptable. Precision is just as important. I could throw 4 darts at a dartboard and get one dart in each of the 4 cardinal directions and I would have perfect accuracy but that doesn’t mean I’m good. My precision would be terrible. Surprisingly, my precision was much better in NA than in EU, but my accuracy was better in EU than NA. This is due to NA only being imprecise because the games lasted longer than expected. EU had better accuracy because it had the extremes. A player like SELFIE was in the extremely positive aspect while a player like cowTard was in the extremely negative aspect, and they averaged to what I predicted. However, I am disappointed in my failures to predict, but sports would not be exciting if you can figure out what happens just by looking at numbers and charts.
Week 8 Method
I am changing my elo chart so that the “K” value is 45 instead of 64. This gives fewer points to teams doing well and more points to teams doing poorly. It also causes less fluctuation from a team doing well one week and another team doing poorly. I think elo is the best way to calculate the predictions, but as usual, I will provide all 3 of my methods in the reddit thread.
FNC SOAZ 35.66 points
Fnatic took EU LCS by storm last week by going 4-0 with a fairly difficult schedule. They play another tough schedule this week, but games against SHC always net many points, and FNC has the strength to dismantle SK. SOAZ has been playing amazingly as of late, and I expect him to continue.
LMQ Ackerman 34.07 points
The LMQ boys are always fun to watch. Their games almost always devolve into kill-fests, and LMQ almost always gets a lot of points. They play two streaky teams this week, coL and Dig. Unfortunately, they play Dig on Day 1 so it is more likely for them to lose that game. I would say LMQ has a moderate risk this week.
CRS Quas 33.90 points
Quas and the rest of the Curse roster dominated last week by going 3-1 while playing 4 of the top 5 teams in NA. Now they play the bottom 2 teams in NA. I expect them to win both games this week, and that causes all of Curse to be my sleeper OP picks for this upcoming week.
CW Airwaks 43.61 points
This guy plays an entirely different game than every other jungler in LCS. I think he plays CoD because it seems like kills are the only thing that matter to him. If CW manages to pull out a win, Airwaks will probably be the #1 jungler for the week, and they will be playing the extremely questionable Gambit. So……… Start this guy.
Mil KottenX 36.26 points
I think KottenX is a risk (Mil players are always a risk with their playstyle) but I think that he will do well this week. Mil will be playing Alliance and even though they look vulnerable at the moment, Mil looks even more vulnerable. The game vs CW will be where he gets most of his points.
FNC Cyanide 35.16 points
See what I said about SOAZ. Fnatic is looking stronger than ever after going 4-0 last week, and they play SK and SHC this week. Cyanide hasn’t disappointed all split, and he will continue to perform.
Mil Kerp 43.60 points
I have some serious doubts about Kerp putting up 44 points this week. Yes, he plays CW this week, but Mil went 1-3 last week and now they play Alliance as well. He wouldn’t be my #1 going into this week, but he is statistically the #1.
CW Cowtard 43.57 points
WARNING: cowTard may not start this week!
I’m predicting cowTard to score more points in 2 games than he did in 4 games last week. That’s how poorly CW played last week. Here’s to hoping they still don’t know how to close out games and continue to rack up kills on a severely weakened Gambit this week.
LMQ XiaoWeiXiao 42.37 points
LMQ will most likely win at least 1 game this week, and I expect a hard-fought game with Dignitas as well. It is very likely for XWX to get these points this week, and depending on the Dig game, he can very easily surpass this total.
CW Woolite 51.08 points
Again, CW let down a lot of people last week. This week they will probably get 30 points each at least in the Gambit game (unless new Gambit is stronger than predicted) and they will probably play Millennium competitively. I think this is very feasible.
Mil Creaton 44.45 points
I would not start Creaton this week even though he has a high expected total. I think anybody expected over 35 points this week will perform better than him because Mil looks to be in a slump and they play one of their games against Alliance.
FNC Rekkles 43.21 points
You can never go wrong with starting Rekkles on your fantasy team. He is extremely consistent and will always put up good numbers with very few deaths. It helps that Fnatic looks stronger than ever, but Rekkles is a must-start every week (unless you are in a 4-man league).
FNC Yellowstar 36.01 points
Supports are very reliant on how well their team does. Fnatic is doing well. Yellowstar will do well. He also played amazingly all super week. Start him.
Mil Jree 31.70 points
Definitely not. He performs relatively worse than either Creaton and Kerp, and I recommended against both of those guys. I don’t see Mil performing that well this week, and even if they go 1-1 I don’t think they will score very well in their loss.
CRS Xpecial 30.64 points
Curse plays EG and coL this week, and Xpecial did extremely well last week (especially considering his schedule). I would start anybody for Curse (except for maybe IWD) this week. They played very well last week, and they have an “easier” schedule this week.
Curse 31 points
I’ve been talking about Curse this entire article. But it is hard to ignore. They played amazingly last week against tougher competition, and their slow games will cause them to get more team objectives just because of the game length.
Fnatic 30 points
Fnatic has been playing very well recently, and there is a chance that they 2-0 their competition this week. I don’t see much of a downside in playing Fnatic as a team.
Alliance 27 points
Alliance will still be Alliance. I don’t think their 2-2 super week will cause them to regress that hard, but it is important to keep an eye on these things. They are still a strong team, and probably still the strongest in EU.
Firstly, I’d like to express how surprising many of the results of super week are. As a spectator it’s amazing and wonderful because it means that all the games matter. And an analyst, it’s awful because the games don’t end as expected. Hopefully everybody still performed well in their respective leagues!
Secondly, I’d like to send a tremendous thank you to /u/_Zaga_ and his amazing site http://flcspro.com. Without his data aggregation, I would not be able to continue this series due to having less time now that I am back at school. I now have more data than what I was collecting manually, plus I don’t have to input the data manually anymore. I just finished setting up my previous work with his site, so now that I have extra time, I look to include some more information in the upcoming week!