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Week 5 Fantasy Predictions and Analysis


This week, I am trying something different with my Fantasy LCS analysis.  Previous weeks, I focused on players that I felt were underrated and weren’t picked up by most fantasy teams.  Altec, Woolite, and NiQ were all players I said would do well and they have been having solid weeks (when they play both games) with some really standout weeks in between.  The issue with that method is that without having actual statistics from Riot, I never know what players are actually being picked up in leagues around the world.  In addition to that, there are not enough players in LCS to allow for an interesting flow of Add/Drops after the first couple of weeks.  So this week, and probably from here on out, I will be predicting highest scoring players and analyzing why the data makes sense.

Method

This weekend, I threw together a very in-depth excel program detailing every game of the Summer Split for both NA and EU. It breaks down head-to-head matchups between teams, allowed points by a team, allowed points per position, and of course how many points a player gets.  Unfortunately, I am not a programmer so I had a wonderful time inputting statistics for each player and each team but once I had all of the data, I was extremely satisfied.  There are a lot of interesting trends in fantasy points that can actually identify a team’s weakness and then there were also the surprising stats.  My favorite example is how Cloud 9 actually gives up the second most fantasy points to players on opposing teams in NA, especially to ADCs.  Anyways, here are my predictions for the top performers of week 5.

[tabgroup][tab title=”Top Lane”]

LMQtc Ackerman 34.97 points

LMQ plays CLG and C9 this week, which is actually a tough week for the team.  However, CLG gives up a lot of points to top laners, and C9 seems to have stopped their “Camp Balls” strategy ever since 2v0 double jungle got implemented.  Ackerman should be getting ~7% increase on his average points per game from these two games.

FNC sOAZ 34.15 points

You will be seeing a lot of Fnatic here today, even if they don’t win every game, Fnatic scores a lot of points due to having some of the most talented players in EU. They also get about a 17% boost across the board for playing against Millenium and Gambit this weekend.  Top lane specifically gets a 30% boost due to the matchups (especially if Darien’s feed to win strategy is in effect) so even a player that has been underperforming like sOAZ can have one of the best weeks this week.

SHC Mimer 31.45 points

Supa Hot Crew XD plays CW and SK this week and CW tends to give up a lot of points.  Mimer and the rest of SHC have been doing pretty well for themselves this split, so they have some of the highest points per game, but when you are expected to have a 17% increase to your top lane performance, then you also become one of the top 3 points scorers.[/tab]

[tab title=”Jungle”]

FNC Cyanide 37.00 points

The first of 3 European junglers on this top 3 list is Fnatic’s Cyanide. Cyanide has always been a good player, and with champions like Jarvan becoming more viable, I expect him to get better. Cyanide is one of the top 5 junglers (in terms of fantasy points) available, and with his matchups this weekend, he should be getting a 28% increase to his average points per game.

All Shook 34.51 points

Alliance has the same schedule as SHC this week, and when you play CW, you know your players will be getting a lot of fantasy points.  SK will probably be a difficult game for Alliance, but that doesn’t make me lose faith in Shook being in the top 3 for Fantasy Junglers, especially when expected for a 21% increase.

Mil Kottenx 31.99 points

With Kottenx rounding out the top 3, it seems like European junglers are the best in the world (isn’t that right CLG and TSM).  Millenium plays Fnatic and Roccat this weekend, who are actually very difficult to score points on. Kottenx is actually slated for a 27% decrease in production however, Kottenx’s production has been so ridiculously high that he is still pushing for 32 points this weekend and therefore keeps his spot in the top 3.[/tab]

[tab title=”Mid”]

Dig Shiphtur 48.68 points

This dude is insane. That’s all I really have to say. Shiphtur is really, really good at League of Legends, and Dignitas is playing TSM and coL this weekend. He’s slated for a 43% increase on his already high points per game.  I don’t know how he does it, or if he’ll manage to keep up this pace, but he only has 5 deaths on the season, and that’s just stupid. Even if you dont think he can keep this rate of play up for the entire season, you would be very bold to bet against this kind of trend.

FNC xPeke 43.96 points

As I said before, Fnatic has a very strong week coming up this week.  xPeke hasn’t been performing as well as he would like this split, but he will still be facing NiQ in the midlane (which should be in xPeke’s favor unless Nid is picked) and going against Millenium. The Millenium game can end in a shootout like many Millenium games do, but xPeke and his fantasy owners are ready for his expected 21% increase in production.

All Froggen 43.48 points

After last week, the bird may not be the word, but Froggen is definitely still the best mid in EU. After finally losing with Anivia, we might not see Froggen play her for at least a couple weeks, but I do still see Froggen performing very well this week against the likes of CW and SK. Outside of Alliance, SK causes opposing mid-laners to score the least amount of points while CW allows the most points to opposing mids.  With that in mind, I actually think Froggen will score a little less points than what I have calculated and trend more towards his average of 38 points per two games.[/tab]

[tab title=”ADC”]

FNC Rekkles 47.40 points

Rekkles may not have the best matchup this weekend (only a 17% increase) but there is no denying the fact that Rekkles has been the 2nd best player in Fantasy LCS, behind only the snowball god: Kerp. I see no reason to believe that Rekkles won’t end up with these projected points, due to him rarely dying and always managing to pick up kills in teamfights.  Rekkles will never disappoint his fantasy owners, and will likely remain a great source of points throughout this week at least.

All Tabzz 42.69 points/SHC MrRallez 40.84 points

For all the things that SK is good at, they are not very good at stopping ADCs.  That is SK’s worst statistic, and even though it is CW’s best statistic, it is still not very promising for CW.  That is why the next two spots belong to the players playing against SK and CW this weekend, Tabzz and MrRallez.  Both players are in line for a 21% increase and I think that it is very likely for both players to be in the top 3 ADCs.  Vasilii was a very close 4th and could still take the last spot away, but his games vs CLG and C9 will probably cause him to remain out of the top 3.[/tab]

[tab title=”Support”]

FNC Yellowstar 33.94 points

The last of the Fnatic players is finally listed, and it shows how much of a role scheduling can have in determining how well players will do, or at least in how it is factored into my calculations.  Firstly, it should be noted that you should not start only Fnatic players because all it would take is one bad game to cause you to lose your matchup for the weekend. The first major rule of good investing is diversification, which means not keeping all your eggs in one basket, or in this case, starting everyone from the same team. Back to Yellowstar, he will do really well if Fnatic starts rolling, but if Fnatic is in a close game or in a losing situation, Yellowstar will end up dying a lot in order to save the rest of his team.  I think this score will be likely, but I will not be surprised if Yellowstar scores less than projected.

Dig Kiwikid 32.49 points

This was a little surprising to me when I first saw it due to Kiwipie underperforming and being carried by Shiphtur, Zion, and Crumbzz, but then I saw coL’s stats. They give up ~70% more points to supports than the average team in NA. Pure speculation on my behalf suggests that coL almost never has enough vision to go for picks on roaming/warding supports like other teams in NA do. Supports may start earning less points against coL now that Kez is full-time jungler, but as of right now, the trends say that supports that play against coL will receive a lot of points.

All Nyph 31.31 points

Alliance wins a lot of games, and Nyph assists in a lot of kills. It is known. This trend will likely continue this weekend when Alliance plays against CW.  However, it is important to be wary of games like this where the first place team takes on the last place team. Even if Alliance performs well and wins, there is no guarantee that they will have played long enough for the players to net a lot of points, as shorter games yield less points. I still feel that this weekend will be a good weekend for Alliance, but I will remain suspicious of the fast ending game.[/tab]

[tab title=”Teams”]

Dignitas 35 points

Unless TSM dismantles Dignitas like they did against C9’s assassin comp, I see this as extremely likely.  Dig plays TSM and coL this weekend, and last time they played, Dig got 21 and 19 points, respectively.  TSM has been doing better now that Coach Loco is in the house, but how much better remains to be seen. I think it is a very safe bet that Dignitas gets about 35 points this weekend.

Alliance 33 or 34 points

I have 2 numbers here due to Alliance being calculated to get 33.5 points this weekend and I am conflicted on rounding up or down. Rounding up is correct, but I really want to round down so I can have a pattern of the top 3 being 35 points, 33 points, and 31 points. Back to the actual discussion, Alliance scored 18 points against SK in their last matchup and 20 points against CW in their last matchup. I think it is very reasonable to expect 33 or 34 points from Alliance this week and I feel that they will probably get more since I predict that they will win both of their games.

Millenium 31 points

I bet you were expecting Fnatic here, weren’t you.  Unfortunately, Fnatic (for all of it’s talent) does not have very much of a macro game at this moment and loses a lot of objectives.  Millenium on the other hand competes for dragons and when they win, they make sure to take every tower on the way because they do not want to risk a dive.  Millenium plays against Fnatic and Roccat this weekend and earning 31 points sounds about right for a win and a close loss.  It also fits the description of 2 very fast wins. Both scenarios are likely against the teams they play against and I would not be surprised if Mil even ended with 40+ points this week.[/tab][/tabgroup]

Closing

I am personally very happy so far with this new setup, and I really enjoy the data I have immediately available to me.  I may look into doing data-only analyses of team play styles in the future.  Currently, I am thinking of different ways to calculate projected points in case my current version ends up being inaccurate or imprecise.  To close, here are some tables with projected stats of all players for this upcoming week. I will rarely share data from my tables, but this is the exception so it can be proof for when I compare and contrast expected results with the final results.  Feel free to contact me through twitter with any questions you may have about my work or tips/advice you may want.

c5 fantasy wk5


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Asolitaryllama

is a Chemical Engineering student at Northeastern University. He has played League of Legends for over three years now and has watched the competitive scene for just as long. Message him either on twitter or Facebook @Asolitaryllama.

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