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Week 10: Fantasy Predictions and Analysis


fantasy week 10

It is now Week 10. This is the last normal week of LCS, with Super Week following in Week 11. Good luck to everyone in their quest for the top spot of their respective Fantasy Leagues!

Week 9 Analysis

Last week was filled with many surprises and incorrect predictions. The most obvious one was TSM. First, they were stomped by LMQ, rather than putting up a fight for a more competitive match between the two teams.  Then they played very un-TSM-like game against coL, as they played the map in a more CLG-esque fashion rather than creating typical TSM kill-fests. These two different gameplay outcomes caused TSM to score about 20 points less per player. Curse also made a rather large and unexpected jump thanks to their game against C9.

This past week was rather unusual, in that it became the ‘Occupy Wall Street’ of LCS weeks. Almost all of the points were held by a very select few players. This made accurate predictions jump in the rankings because those predicted above them failed to score.

This is incredibly noticeable if you look at ZionSpartan. He scored 1.6 points less than I projected, but he jumped up four places in the rankings because the players that were previously above him did much, much worse than expected. This is a very interesting anomaly, but I do not want to delve to deep into that because fantasy is the key component of this article.

This past week, my predictions were -2.34% accurate and +/ 11.21 points precise. This was caused by very few people actually scoring an large numbers of points, some scoring far below predictions while the remainder scoring as predicted. Both regions are to blame for this deviation, but a large portion of that comes from NA, as TSM, CRS, C9, and CLG all performed in an unexpected manner.

To see where players moved in relation to other players, here are Week 9’s positional rankings (BrokenShard and SorenXD are in place for where Airwaks and cowTard were ranked):

Week 9: Projected Results

week 9 predictions

Week 9: Actual Results

week 9 actual

Week 10: Method

There will be no changes to my method this week. I do not want to continue experimenting, as there are only two weeks remaining.  Here are the projected places of each player based on position for Week 10:

week 10 predictions

And the points projected for each player (M3):

week 10 m3

Top Lane

LMQ Ackerman: 39.26 points

LMQ has finally seized control of the elusive #1 spot in NA. Their dominating performances (especially by Ackerman) last week put them in a well-deserved position – At least two games ahead of their next closest opponents. This week, they play a shaky C9 and a compLexity team that gives up a lot of points, even if they manage to win the game. LMQ has had much tougher weeks and done better than what is projected from them this week. Thus, Ackerman is a strong pick in the top lane.

SHC Mimer: 36.30 points

After an extremely disappointing display last week, I expect SHC to bounce back but not necessarily from them playing any better, just their opponents getting easier. Last week, they played two of the three top teams in EU (by elo rating), and this week they will be playing the two bottom teams of EU (by elo rating). They have proven throughout the season that they can score points, so now they just need to bounce back against SK and Gambit.

Mil Kev1n: 33.08 points

Millenium did not disappoint last week. Kev1n may have underscored (in comparison to his team), but that was an anomaly among his recent performances. They have a tough week coming up against a new CW team and an extremely scary Fnatic.  However, Mil consistently scores amazingly against CW.

Jungle

LMQ NoName: 38.82 points

LMQ has been dominating recently, going 6-0 the past six games, and looking to continue their domination throughout their upcoming week. I see no reason to sit them.

SHC Impaler: 37.04 points

SHC has a very easy time this week, and these guys can easily score a large amount of points.

Mil KottenX: 35.80 points

KottenX always plays well. He has had maybe one bad week this split, but he has consistently been one of the top performers on a team that goes for kills. I don’t think he will disappoint this week.

Mid

LMQ XiaoWeiXiao: 49.36 points

Luckily for you, this is the last LMQ player at #1 this week. Again, XWX always manages to play extremely well, and I do not expect him or LMQ to play poorly this week.

SHC SELFIE: 43.54 points

Another SHC player at #2. It really shows that schedule is more important than the actual player for Fantasy.  Look for a great performance out of all of the SHC players this week.

Mil Kerp: 43.15 points

This is ridiculous. #3 is once again a player from Millenium. I have high hopes for Millenium going into this week because they have been some of the highest scorers, if not the highest scorers for the past two weeks.  However – They will have to overcome Fnatic in order to remain in one of the top spots.

ADC

FNC Rekkles: 47.45 points

Rekkles saves the day by beating out Vasilii for the #1 ADC position. He’s the #1 point scorer for all of Fantasy, so it makes sense that he is #1 projected, moving into this week. He has been the most consistent performer in the LCS.

LMQ Vasilii: 46.43 points

I expect a great week from LMQ. I think everybody expects a great week from LMQ.  Vasilii plays extremely aggressively and will pick up as many kills as possible in hopes to carry his team. Great player for Fantasy.

Mil Creaton: 43.52 points

Creaton has been playing amazingly in the past two weeks. I expect him to carry against CW and to get into a shootout with Rekkles. Mil looks like a Top 3 EU team when they are consistent. The problem arises with the question of, can they remain consistent long enough to get to Worlds?

Support

FNC Yellowstar: 35.93 points

Supports are very reliant on how well their team/ADC does. Fnatic/Rekkles are doing well. Yellowstar will do well – He has also played amazingly the past three weeks. Start him.

LMQ Mor: 35.37 points

As I stated above, supports rely on how well their team plays. It’s hard to argue with the streaks that LMQ and FNC have going for them.

SHC KaSing: 32.14 points

Again, SHC had a very disappointing week last week, but I expect them to be able to turn it around due to the skill-level of the opponents they are facing this week.

Teams

LMQ: 31 points

6-0.  Easy week. #1 NA. Barring any flukes, I expect LMQ to remain #1.

Fnatic: 31 points

8-0.  Best elo in EU. However, they do face a difficult week ahead, due to playing Alliance and Millenium. I still believe that Fnatic will do well, but they have shown a tendency to be streaky in the past. It just depends on when that ‘streak’ occurs.

Roccat: 29 points

Roccat will be playing the two weakest teams in EU (by elo) this week: SK and Gambit. It seems logical for them to pull out two wins in these match-ups. I would say that the Roccat players are my sleeper picks that may net you a large amount of points, particularly against their opponent line-up this week.

Closing

This is the last regular week of my Fantasy LCS predictions.  I am actually already getting prepared for next week’s Super Week, and I expect to release my next Fantasy article around mid-day on Monday. Good luck this week!

 

Credit to /u/_Zaga_ and his site: http://flcspro.com for compiling all data for me this week.

 

P.S. Have some elo graphs of NA and EU!  K = 45.

week 10 na eloweek 10 eu elo


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Asolitaryllama

is a Chemical Engineering student at Northeastern University. He has played League of Legends for over three years now and has watched the competitive scene for just as long. Message him either on twitter or Facebook @Asolitaryllama.

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