This week is Super Week, so that means fantasy rosters lock early on Tuesday and players play four games. In fact, it has been a super week for me as well, so I will not be doing as much analysis as I have for my previous articles. This week, I will point out teams/players that will probably have a great week this week and I will include a small discussion about each of my (now) three methods. I will probably be dropping Method 2 in favor of Method 3 because Method 3 is the same, except it determines wins/loss ratio by a team’s elo rather than just their wins in the current split. It is experimental so far, but I am pretty sure it will outclass my current system – I would like to thank /u/dilatorily for the idea to use team elo.
Method 1 is my original method and it involves taking a player’s ppg and the allowed points per game for that position by the opposing team. Last week, NA was the problem child for predictions due to having a lot of games extending past NA’s average game time. However, as I get more data, my predictions get more accurate and precise even when there are outlier games. This week, M1 was 8.26% accurate and +/- 6.68 points precise. For EU, it was 1.98% accurate and +/- 6.06 points precise and NA was 14.5% accurate and +/- 7.3 points precise. M1 is my least correct method, however, it is the easiest to understand and it is the easiest to create. It gives a good idea of what teams will perform well and what players will have good weeks.
Method 2 is similar to Method 1 however, it gives teams a win chance based on their ppwin, points allowed per loss for opposing team, and likeliness of a win. This is then repeated for that player losing as well. The win chance is calculated by using how many wins a team has in the split vs how many wins the opposing team has. Overall this past week, M2 had an accuracy of 4.94% and it was +/- 6.56 points precise. This is really good. On average, I am only +5% off from the actual results. For Super Week, that means my numbers through M2 will be about 3-4 points lower than what will actually happen. However, without looking at the precision, accuracy doesn’t mean as much. Precision shows the absolute value of the difference between my numbers and the actual outcome. So, on average, my player predictions are off by either +6.56 points or by -6.56 points. In EU, my accuracy and precision is even better at 0.09% accurate and +/- 6.48 points precise. NA was 9.79% accurate and +/- 6.65 points precise.
Method 3 is extremely similar to Method 2 with just a slight adjustment. Instead of using the amount of wins to determine a win chance, I created an elo chart of EU and NA. An idea of how elo determines a win chance, if a team has 400 more elo than an opposing team, then that team will be 10x more likely to win the game, or have a 90.9% win chance while the competitor has a 9.09% win chance. In my personal elo chart, I modified the k-value from the standard 32, to 64. This means a team can gain or lose a maximum of 64 points per game rather than 32. 32 does not offer enough separation between teams due to there not being enough games in LCS. If there were somehow more games, 32 would definitely be a better k value, but there are only 28 over an entire season, and we just hit the halfway point. This is experimental, so use caution when using this table, but it should very closely reflect what M2 shows.
Key Players and Warning Signs
TSM is a very hot team right now. This past week, I expected them to perform poorly because they were playing two of the top three teams in NA, but TSM ended up being the highest scorers of Week 6. I don’t know if it is Bowlcodoco leading the charge, or if it is Gleeb and Amazing finally getting synergy with TSM, but they definitely look like one of the top teams. This week they play the three bottom teams and a very streaky Dignitas. I look for them to actually get a lot more points than projected.
Dignitas has been slipping, and it clearly shows in their fantasy projections. Shiphtur has been one of the worst, if not the worst, mid-laner in the past two weeks, netting about 50 points. They have an easier schedule this week, but they are still very risky and could struggle this week.
Millenium looks to perform extremely well this week, especially the Big 3 of KottenX, Kerp, and Creaton. They play an easier schedule and those three almost always show up.
Alliance is the best in EU, by a wide margin. Their only fantasy issue is how quickly they win their games. They will almost always win, but if they win like they did against Roccat, their fantasy value will drop.
The Fnatic reign of terror is finally ending; they have a very difficult schedule this week, and their inconsistency will definitely hurt them this week. Rekkles will perform well as always, but the other four are very questionable.
Supa Hot Crew XD plays the three top teams of EU and their game of CW probably won’t save them from this super week. A lot of people have jumped on their hype train earlier in the season, but I would probably sit every SHC player this week.
Roccat can definitely be the dark horse of the Super Week. They play CW, FNC, GMB, and Mil. These teams tend to give up a lot of points, and if Roccat wins two of these games, they can easily get over 60 points on the week.
I am sorry for changing up my predictions article, but due to outside sources, along with Super Week, I was time-constrained and I was unable to get an article that details specific players and their matchups this week. As always, I will answer any questions and give advice on the reddit thread on /r/FantasyLCS. I look forward to what I will be doing next week, and I hope I can get some pretty interesting statistics and analysis for Week 8.