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Super Week 11: Fantasy Predictions and Analysis


fantasy week11

It is the last week of the season with one final super week to decide final standings for both NA and EU! This leaves us with just one super week to decide the final standings for fantasy LCS.

Luckily for me I am in contention for first place in all of my leagues and hopefully you guys are in the same position. Many of the teams have a lot to play for so I hope that we can have a very exciting set of games for super week.

Week 10 Analysis

Last week was, unpredictable, to say the least.

North America, as a whole, scored 20% less points than projected.  That’s about 300 total points lost from NA players. A lot of that burden fell onto LMQ and CLG with both teams having 1 or, in the case of CLG, 2 very disappointing games.

This caused players who were expected to lead in points to be near the bottom of the bracket.  EU was actually fairly predictable except for Alliance “stacking” the decks and going on a truly dominant 2-0 this week.  CW also did much worse than expected, but not much was expected in the first place.

EU performed much better than NA, however there were still a large amount of inaccuracies, mostly coming off of the performances by Roccat and Alliance. However, unlike NA, EU had a much closer week with people overperforming their predictions as well as having players underperforming. This is evident in the data because EU as a region scored only 4% less points than I projected.

This past week was awful for predictions.  Overall, my predictions were -11.08% accurate and +/ 10.51 points precise. This is a tremendous difference from my previous weeks. Many more games were stomps in NA than usual, with very few games actually being close at the end.

To see where players moved in relation to other players, here are Week 10’s positional rankings:

Week 10: Projected Results

week 10 predictions

Week 10: Actual Results

week 10 actual

Week 11: Method

Super week!  Apart from making my predictions earlier in the week, nothing will change in my method.  Here are the projected places of each player based on position for Week 10:

super week 11 predictions

And the points projected for each player (M3):

super week 11 m3

Top Lane

FNC Soaz: 72.61 points

Fnatic’s toughest opponent this week is SHC. SHC is 3rd-4th in EU right now, but currently the skill gap between 1st and 2nd and the rest of EU is obscene. Games can be taken off of Alliance and Fnatic, but it is very unlikely and in most cases it will be a close match with both teams scoring a lot of fantasy points.

Fnatic’s other matchups this week are SK, Roccat and CW, who are all easy winnable games for the Season 1 World Champions.

Mil Kev1n: 71.26 points

Millenium remained in line with what I predicted or exceeded expectations that week depending on the player. None of them did worse than expected. This week isn’t “easy” but two of their games should be clear wins against SK and Gambit.

Their other two games will likely be hard-fought battles between Alliance and SHC.  Historically, Kev1n hasn’t done too well against All and SHC only averaging 14 points and 17 points a game respectively, but that is still better than most players.

LMQ Ackerman: 62.30 points

LMQ disappointed last week but these players are extremely explosive and can easily put up the most points in a week on any given week, especially Ackerman. He is probably the best top laner in NA and he has certainly had games where he played like that.

I expect him to redeem himself this week unless LMQ secures first place in NA early.  Then they might try new strats to see their viability.

Jungle

Mil KottenX: 77.83 points

KottenX continues to play extremely well. I don’t see him slumping at the end of the split.  Continue playing KottenX and continue getting points.

FNC Cyanide: 70.98 points

Fnatic has continued to play well, and their pick-style comps lead to a lot of kills and kill participation for the team members. Cyanide has been especially good this split.

TSM Amazing: 66.61 points

Amazing has continued to expand his champion pool and has continued to show that he is a top jungler. TSM are doing better than previous weeks, but they play a difficult schedule in super week. Not counting Curse, TSM has a 2-7 record against their opponents. I think playing TSM players this week might be a risk.

Mid

Mil Kerp: 90.11 points

Kerp has continued to impress and show off with his trackball. He loves assassins, and with both Fizz and Ahri are becoming popular again he could score big points even with an off chance of picking up AP Gragas before his 4.13 nerfs. Kerp is definitely one of the best players in fantasy and you should start him.

FNC xPeke: 85.40 points

Fnatic is here again due to playing extremely well over the past weeks. xPeke had a poor showing last week, but he always manages to find his groove when needed, plus he will probably do well if Fnatic does well and I think they are looking at a probable 4-0 week.

All Froggen: 82.55 points

Even though Froggen is considered the best mid in the west he doesn’t scores many points. Last week, he showed us a different side of himself, and importantly for fantasy LCS, a very snowbally side. This week, Alliance plays SK, Mil, Gambit, and Roccat.  All but Mil seem like they would be fairly easy games so that definitely causes all of the Alliance players to move up in the rankings.

ADC

FNC Rekkles: 100.05 points

Rekkles is a beautiful man that Deficio may or may not have a man crush on. Maybe it’s a Support/ADC thing. Moving on from that, Rekkles has been #1 for a number of consecutive weeks, and with him performing like he does, he definitely deserves it each and every week.

Mil Creaton: 91.17 points

Creaton has been the other side of the Millenium double carry compositions.  Firstly you have to worry about Kerp and his assassination potential, but if you get rid of Kerp then you have Creaton on the back line decimating your team.  I definitely see him doing well this week.

EG Altec: 82.38 points

Here’s a surprise! Altec falls into the third position for ADC this week. He has consistently shown off his talent and can definitely pull off this point total if EG wins 2 games this week.  However, that will be a difficult task considering they play C9, CLG, LMQ, and coL.  CLG is the only team that has looked ineffective recently and coL is the only team close to their skill level. It’s possible for Altec to take 3rd, but it is highly unlikely.

I think he is a risk.

Support

FNC Yellowstar: 81.22 points

Supports are very reliant on how well their team/ADC does. If Fnatic/Rekkles are doing well then Yellowstar will do well – He has also played amazingly the past four weeks. Start him.

Mil Jree: 62.71 points

Jree has usually remained off of this list due to him usually performing very poorly compared to the rest of his team, but recently he has been one of the top recipients of points. Another thing benefiting Jree is that not many teams have a cakewalk this week so his solid performance is bumped up a couple of places.

All Nyph: 59.94 points

Alliance looks to close out the season on a high note,and they looked strong last week. Nyph also recently reached 1000 assists, so look for him to continue getting more.

Teams

FNC: 64 points

Fnatic is looking at possibly a 4-0 this week. I think they might even get more than 64.

All: 61 points

The other top team in EU is also looking at either a 3-1 or 4-0 this week. Again, I expect them to get more than projected.

LMQ: 57 points

Even though they got crushed by C9 yesterday, LMQ is still the #1 team in NA. It is very likely that they play well during super week and manage to end the week with a 3-1 record at least.

Closing

Unfortunately, this is the last week of the summer split.  Fortunately, we will probably be up for some good games this week with many team fighting to survive and to secure the best record they can before playoffs. Also, once the split ends, that means playoffs and worlds are incredibly close!

This is my last fantasy predictions article, but I will be looking to write an overview of how Fantasy LCS went this season and what can be improved upon in order to make Fantasy LCS as good as it can be in the future.

 

Credit to /u/_Zaga_ and his site: http://flcspro.com for compiling all data for me this week.

 

P.S. Have some elo graphs of NA and EU!  K = 45.

super week 11 na elo
super week 11 eu elo


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Asolitaryllama

is a Chemical Engineering student at Northeastern University. He has played League of Legends for over three years now and has watched the competitive scene for just as long. Message him either on twitter or Facebook @Asolitaryllama.

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